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October 30, 2009
October 30, 2009 - November 5, 2009
Volume XII, Issue 32
In This Issue...
State Park Budget Cuts Hit Home
Capitola Says No to Another Rispin Extension Request
Capitola City Manager To Retire
Planning the New Scotts Valley Library
Surfing Comes Home to Boulder Creek
More Trouble at the Brookdale Inn
Loma Fire Contained
VCUM Kicks Off Thanksgiving Food Drive
SV's Red Ribbon Week Promotes Drug-Free Lives
Plaque Commemorates Lime Works
Bounty of Pjs
Water Manager Praises Conservation Efforts
Wells Fargo Gives $24K to Local Schools
Change Your Clock, Change Your Batteries
Thirty-Meter Telescope Discussion
Crimebeat
Crime Beat 10/30/09
No Charges in High School Sports Fundraising Money Theft
Environment
Rain or No Rain? Forecasters Don't Know
The Weather Twins
Mark Stone Advocates Banning Single-Use Bags
Newsmakers
Scotts Valley High Haunted Hospital Raises Money to Fight Cancer
New Boulder Creek Business Board Continuing Most Seasonal Events
Monning Holds Office Hours
Redwoods League Announces Grants
People
Scotts Valley Chamber Announces 2009 Honorees
The Mid-County Post > Environment
The Weather Twins
El Niño and La Niña are opposite extremes of a phenomenon called the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, cycle every three to five years. Both terms refer to surface ocean temperatures in the equatorial area of the Pacific from approximately the International Date Line to 120 degrees west, roughly the longitude of Santa Cruz. El Niño is the warm phase of that cycle, with surface temperatures up to four degrees Fahrenheit above average; during La Niña they can dip below by a like amount. Associated with them are below average and above average air pressure respectively.

During El Niño phases, such as we seem to be entering now, there is a blocking high pressure region south of Alaska which results in a southward and eastward shift of the main region of cyclone formation.

That region moves to just west of California, which results in a very stormy winter with associated increased precipitation across California and the southern U.S. Northern parts of the country face milder conditions.

Are we in an El Niño now? The Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service says "A majority of the model forecasts… suggest that El Niño will reach at least moderate strength during the Northern Hemisphere fall. …Many model forecasts even suggest a strong El Niño… during the fall and winter."

Does that mean rain? For the Gulf Coast states, the Center says yes. For the Pacific Northwest, it means below-average precipitation. For us in the region in between, the answer is the same frustrating one we seem to hear year after year – "Wait and see."
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